FORECASTER SHIFTS 14 RACES TOWARD DEMS: And a Blue Wave Is Now on the Table

With just four days until the midterm elections, the Cook Political Report shifted 14 House and Senate races toward Democrats on October 30, in its latest pre-election ratings update.

The forecaster said the moves suggest Democrats could flip between 12 and 25 House seats, potentially building their largest House majority in more than a decade.

Under the new ratings, more than 220 House races now favor Democrats. If Democrats won all of those plus 18 toss-up races, they would hold a 240-seat majority; they need 218 seats to control the chamber.

Among the biggest moves, Pennsylvania's 1st District, which includes Bucks County outside Philadelphia, shifted from lean Republican to toss-up, even though Trump won the district in 2024 and 2016.

South Carolina's 1st District, covering coastal areas outside Charleston, and Colorado's 5th District, covering Colorado Springs, also moved from lean Republican toward toss-up. Two other races — Ohio's 9th District in northwest Ohio and Pennsylvania's 8th District, covering Scranton and Wilkes-Barre — moved from toss-up to lean Democrat, in areas long watched as bellwethers for Trump's standing with white blue-collar voters.